Case Study ยท April 2026

MSFT $375 Call. Peak +818% from signal.

The scan flagged Microsoft on April 15 against the consensus. Flow and dark pool agreed. The $375 call May 15 ran past +800% peak inside a week. Here's the story.

Signal date: 2026-04-15 Ticker: MSFT Strike / Exp: $375C May 15 Category: Watchlist tier Status: Open
+818%
Peak return
+697%
Current
$6.50
Entry premium

The setup against the consensus

MSFT was down 20% year-to-date. Consensus was cautious. The tape was telling you mega-cap tech had run its course. Every retail thread was calling for a bounce in the "beaten down" names and a rotation out of software.

The flow said otherwise.

Why we flagged it

Institutional options flow on MSFT was loud that morning. Sweeps and above-ask buying across multiple strikes. Call-side dollar volume in the hundred-millions by the time the scan ran. Not retail behavior.

Dark pool activity confirmed. MSFT was one of the biggest block-trade accumulations of the session, heavier than any other single mega-cap name on the board. When options flow and dark pool point the same direction on the same day, the positioning is not a hedge. It's conviction.

Chart context was neutral-to-constructive. Price was reclaiming short-term structure after the YTD drawdown. Macro window was clean, no binary events in the near-term expiry. The read was a contrarian bullish call on a beaten-down mega-cap, with the institutions positioning before the move, not chasing after.

The contract choice

The $375 call May 15 flagged as the structure. One strike above spot, 30 days to expiration, liquid enough to actually track on a public dashboard without the option price feed being a gong show. Entry premium $6.50 per contract, captured at signal fire on the morning of April 15.

What happened

"Peak % is the signal-quality metric. The call is open and tracked on the public dashboard through May 15 expiry. The -50% stop view is a display toggle for the conservative read; actual closes happen at calendar expiry."

Why transparency matters here

Most signals don't print +818%. Most are in the 40-150% range. Some hit the -50% stop and get logged as losses. The full track record, wins and losses, lives on the dashboard with entry, peak, current, and final outcome for every single call.

This case is on the board because the convergence was real and the tracking was public before the move, not after. That distinction is everything in this category.

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